The #Housing Market Is Experiencing ‘Dangerous Foreclosure Flare-Ups’ #realestate

Seattle skyline

February foreclosure filings increased two percent month-over-month (MoM) in February, according to the latest foreclosure report from RealtyTrac. These include default notices, auctions, and real estate owned (REOs) properties. But filings were down 25 percent from a year ago. One in every 849 homes received a foreclosure filing in February, down from a foreclosure rate of one in every 869 homes the previous month.

“The U.S. foreclosure inferno has been effectively contained,” according to Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “But dangerous foreclosure flare-ups are still popping up in states where foreclosures have been delayed by a lengthy court process or by new legislation making it more difficult to foreclose outside of the court system.”

Foreclosure flare-ups

In Washington for instance, foreclosure activity was up for the 10th straight month, rising two percent MoM, and up 123 percent from a year ago. It now has the nation’s fifth-highest foreclosure rate, for the first time since RealtyTrac began reporting on foreclosures in 2005.

Maine saw an over 400 percent year-over-year (YoY) surge in foreclosure activity. Meanwhile, Maryland’s foreclosure activity was up for the eighth straight month, rising 105 percent on the year and 49 percent on the month.

 

And the rise in Maryland’s foreclosure activity was driven by a 319 percent jump in foreclosure starts – the pace at which mortgages enter the foreclosure process. 

Overall, foreclosure starts were up 10 percent in February, rising for the first time in three months. They were however down 25 percent YoY.

Rising foreclosure starts are cause for concern, because the decline in inventory supported home prices, and in large part helped drive the housing recovery.

Housing analysts have been revising up their 2013 home price forecasts, with Bank of America Merill Lynch and Capital Economics calling for an eight percent rise in home prices.

For now, Florida, Nevada and Illinois continue to have the nation’s highest foreclosure rates.

 

SOURCE: Business Insider

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There Is One Crucial Obstacle To The #Housing Recovery #realestate

Housing analysts have been turning extremely bullish and a few expect home prices to rise 8 percent this year.

Paul Diggle at Capital Economics is one of them. But the housing recovery still has some hurdles it needs to clear.

“Capacity constraints in lenders’ mortgage departments are one of the few remaining bottlenecks in the housing recovery and one of the factors contributing to the marginal role being played by mortgage- dependent buyers,” he writes.

While some people focus on the slow rise in residential construction employment, Diggle pays more attention to the slow pace of job growth in the real estate credit sector.

Between 2005 – 2009, employment in the real estate credit sector fell by 45 percent, while mortgage applications fell 75 percent. Since then however, mortgage applications have “almost doubled”, according to Diggle, while job growth in the real estate credit sector has only increased by seven percent.

Admittedly real estate credit workers tend to have a smaller role in the economy than home construction workers, but this is key to the capacity constraints among mortgage lenders, which in turn is impacting the housing recovery.

The number of mortgage applications being processed by each employee is close to a record high. And the time taken to process a loan is also at “historically high” levels.

“Lenders’ need to manage the level of mortgage applications given their constrained processing capacity is one explanation for why mortgage rates are at record highs relative to MBS yields and credit scoring criteria are very strict. All of this has helped contribute to the marginal role being played by mortgage-dependent buyers in the housing recovery.

“Either way, the bottom line is that an easing in capacity constraints is a necessary precondition to mortgage buyers playing a fuller role in the housing recovery.”

Employment in real estate credit and morgage applications chart

Capital Economics

SOURCE: Business Insider

There Are 4 Big Pieces Of #Housing Data Coming Out This Week #realestate

A full moon rises over manhattan

Economists have been getting increasingly bullish on housing, with some expecting home prices to rise 8 percent this year.To gauge the housing recovery analysts watch data points including home sales and inventory for insight into how tight the housing supply is.

They also watch for sentiment among home builders.

This week we see four important housing data points. Here’s what to expect:

  • The NAHB housing market index for March is out on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for homebuilder sentiment to rise to 47, from 46 the previous month.
  • Housing Starts for February are out 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for housing starts to rise 2.8 percent month-over-month to 915,000, compared with the 8.5 percent decline in January to 890,000. Meanwhile, building permits are expected to rise 2.1 percent to 923,000, compared with a 1.8 percent rise in January to 925,000.
  • On Thursday, we get the FHFA house price index (HPI) for January at 9 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for HPI to rise 0.7 percent month-over-month, compared with 0.6 percent the previous month.
  • Existing home sales for February are also out on Thursday, at 10 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for existing home sales to rise 1.6 percent month-over-month to an annual rate of 5 million, compared with a 0.4 percent rise to an annual rate of 4.92 million in January. 

While monthly data tends to be volatile, it gives us insight into developing trends in the housing market.

SOURCE: Business Insider

Real-estate scam are a big boomer complaint #housing

Most U.S. real-estate markets are past the worst of the housing bust, but homeowners—especially boomers—are still citing real-estate scams and mortgage frauds among their biggest complaints to federal regulators.

According to the Federal Trade Commission, real estate and mortgage issues were both in the top 25 categories of complaints for 2011 and 2012. And those in their 50s had the most to complain about, accounting for 23% of all fraud complaints.

Many boomers may be seeking to downsize from large family homes, while others are overextended or upside down in their mortgage.

Whether selling, buying or both, consumers need to beware of schemes to defraud them in what is likely one of if not the biggest asset in their portfolio: their home.

Many real estate scams just keep reinventing themselves, becoming the same old trick using a new way to get victims.

Paul Barbagelata, broker-owner of Barbagelata Real Estate in San Francisco, has worked in real estate for 23 years. His family has been in the business since 1952 and over the past 61 years they have seen some of the oldest scams come, go and come right back again.

“Forgery of documents showing someone is the owner of a property but really is not,” is one major problem, he said. “It’s been reinvented with technology as the duplicating of notary stamps and grant deeds is much easier with the use of the Internet,” he said.

He said, “selling swampland in Florida is the old-time ultimate scam.” But in recent years, he said, he’s seen scams “selling empty lots to people in rural areas who are promised utility service but never get it.”

Would-be homeowners also should not buy or rent property without seeing it first. That dream retirement home can be a nightmare if you fall for an online real estate scam.

The Internet has made it easy to research real estate, but just because something appears to be a legitimate piece of property for sale, doesn’t mean it is. Never wire or send money for a deposit without proper guidance from a trusted source such as your attorney or a Realtor.

The FTC says there are certain buzz words consumers need to be wary of when it comes to real-estate loans. If a mortgage ad offers a “fixed” rate be sure to find out how long it is fixed for. Some of these rates are as little as 30 days and consumers have a rude awakening when their loan payment goes up before they have even finished unpacking the boxes.

When you see the words “very low rates,” make sure you are clear if they are referring to a payment rate or the interest rate. This big detail may be buried in the fine print. The difference is the interest rate will be the rate used to calculate the interest owed to the lender every month. The payment rate will be the rate used to calculate the amount of the monthly payment.

And to add to the confusion and cost, if the payment rate is less than the interest rate, the interest due will not be covered. What that boils down to is “negative amortization,” whereby the loan balance increases.

Homeowners who find themselves at risk of foreclosure, or in foreclosure, face another group of scams: mortgage relief.

These scams have made it into the FTC’s top 15 complaints the past three years in a row. You will hear all the things you want to hear: your monthly payment will be reduced, a money-back guarantee offer or even that the company is affiliated with the government or your lender.

According to the FTC, companies will promise that “they’ll negotiate a deal with your lender to reduce your mortgage payments or to save your home. They may claim to be attorneys or represent a law firm. They may tell you not to contact your lender, lawyer, or credit counselor. They promise to handle all the details once you pay them a fee. Then they stop returning your calls and take off with your money.” Read more from the FTC’s Consumer Information publication on mortgage-relief scams.

The FTC’s Mortgage Assistance Relief Services Rule makes it illegal for a company to collect fees until the homeowner has received and accepted an offer of relief from the homeowner’s lender. So, even if you agree to receive the help from one of these companies, you don’t need to pay a dime until you get the results you want.

Even without mortgage schemes and real-estate scams, a legitimate real-estate transaction in an unsettled or recovering market can have its problems.

Barbegelata says one of the most common mistakes an anxious buyer makes is not taking the time to understand all the details of the loan process and fees associated with buying.

As for anxious sellers, he said their biggest mistake is “rushing a home on the market. Not putting money into staging and cosmetics can often times lead to a loss of tens of thousands of dollars.”

The more rushed you are, the more likely you will overlook something or sign a document before fully understanding it. When it comes to real estate and mortgages, knowing the people working with you is key. And if you are new to the process, ask friends for referrals, check references and make sure they are familiar with property values and the community you are buying into.

And sometimes it’s not a scam that ends up costing people more than it should. Emotions can run high when you are in bidding wars and there are delays in the mortgage approval process. Stay cool. Don’t rush, work with a team you trust and remember the adage that has been around for as long as scams: if it seems too good to be true, it usually is.

Emmy Award-winning broadcast journalist, documentarian and author Jeanette Pavini covers consumer and investigative news for numerous publications, radio and television. Jeanette is based in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Real Estate Professionals Expect Both Home #Values and Transactions to Increase in 2013 #housing

Market Leader Survey Shows 28 Percent Increase in Market Confidence vs. 2012, Highlights Several “Heartland” Markets Expected to Lead the Recovery

KIRKLAND, WA, Mar 11, 2013 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) — Market Leader LEDR -0.46% , a leader in online marketing and technology solutions for real estate professionals, today released results of a nationwide survey highlighting a significantly more optimistic real estate community across several key market indicators, including real estate valuations, existing-home transactions, new construction starts and more. The survey involved more than 2,400 real estate professionals, all members of ActiveRain, the real estate industry’s largest social media network with more than 330,000 real estate professional members.

A similar survey in early 2012 correctly predicted the bottom of the US real estate market, as the National Association of REALTORS (NAR) showed a 9 percent jump in existing-home sales over the previous year.

For 2013, 84 percent of surveyed real estate professionals believe that real estate values and the number of transactions will increase this year over 2012. Whereas in 2012, one-third of real estate markets were forecasted to see valuation declines, no single market is expected to see a decline in valuations or transactions in 2013.

2012 vs 2013 Real Estate Confidence*

        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    2012        2013      Increase
        ============================================================================
        Real estate values                           3.0         3.9         28%
        Real estate transactions                     3.6         4.0         11%
        New constructions starts                     3.2         3.9         21%
        Local economy                                3.4         3.8         12%
        ----------------------------------------------------------------------------

        
(Scale of 1-5 where 1 represents a significant decline, 3 represents it to stay flat, and 5 represents a significant increase)

“The differences in how real estate professionals are seeing the market in the past 12 months is significant,” said Nikesh Parekh, CEO of ActiveRain. “Confidence in the real estate market has increased by 28 percent, and a rebound in both housing and construction this year is a great sign for the economy.”

Among the local markets expected to see the greatest activity and rebound in 2013 are several cities in the middle of the country. In fact, eight of top ten markets predicted to experience the most growth in 2013 are “heartland” states.

2013 Best Real Estate Markets

1. Austin 2. Ft. Myers – Naples 3. Kansas City 4. Salt Lake City

5. Houston 6. Portland, OR 7. Dallas-Ft. Worth 8. Nashville 9. Detroit 10. San Antonio

A full breakdown of the survey and its findings, as well as an infographic highlighting the key results, can be found at http://www.realestate.com/advice/real-estate-market-is-back/.

About Market Leader

Market Leader, founded in 1999, provides innovative online technology and marketing solutions for real estate professionals across the United States and Canada. The company serves more than 125,000 real estate agents, brokerages and franchisors, offering complete end-to-end solutions that enable them to grow and manage their businesses. Market Leader customers earn more than twice the median income of the typical NAR member. Market Leader’s subscription-based real estate marketing software — including websites, contact management, a marketing center, and lead generation services — helps customers generate a steady stream of prospects, plus provides the systems and training they need to convert those prospects into clients. In addition, the company’s national consumer real estate sites, including http://www.realestate.com, give its customers access to millions of future home buyers and sellers, while providing consumers with free access to the information they seek.

ActiveRain is the real estate market’s largest social media network, with more than 330,000 professional members, and is owned by Market Leader.

Pending Home Sales Soar Despite Rough Winter #housing #realestate

Rough winter weather across much of the nation at the start of this year apparently did not keep home buyers away.

Contracts to buy existing homes in January rose a strong 4.5 percent from the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors, which also revised December’s numbers down. That beats expectations of a 1.8 percent gain. Volume is now 9.5 percent above January 2012 and is the highest reading since April 2010. This as closed sales of existing homes, where contracts were signed toward the end of last year, were basically flat.

“Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher home sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages,” wrote Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors in a release.

The existing home market is faced with a lack of supply of homes for sale, as nearly half of home sales last year were of distressed properties.

Getty Images

Banks have been slow to put foreclosed homes up for sale recently, possibly waiting for prices to improve further. While some expected a surge in inventory once home prices began to improve, that so-called “shadow supply,” has yet to emerge. Prices are rising fast, up nearly 7 percent in December from a year ago in the nation’s twenty largest real estate markets, according to the S&P/Case Shiller Index. But some would-be sellers may be waiting to see just how high prices move in the coming months, while millions of others are still trapped underwater, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 5 percent last week from the previous week and is now at its lowest level since the end of last year, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association weekly survey. Applications historically start to pick up around now, as President’s Day weekend marks the unofficial start of the usually busy spring housing season.

Regionally, the Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast rose 8.2 percent in January and is 10.5 percent higher than January 2012. In the Midwest the index increased 4.5 percent and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent and are 11.3 percent higher January 2012. In the West the index edged up 0.1 percent in January but is 1.5 percent below a year ago. Supplies of homes for sale are most limited in the West, where investors have been buying distressed properties in bulk.

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—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook atfacebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

 

Distressed Homes Still Drive Sales

By: CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Getty Images

The housing market appears to be surging ahead suddenly on all cylinders, but that does not mean it is free of the remnants of its recent downfall.

The number of distressed home sales, either bank-owned or short sales, may be shrinking, but it is still making up a significant share of the overall housing market.

Foreclosure-related sales made up 21 percent of all U.S. sales in 2012 and short sales, when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage, made up 22 percent, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. Add it up and 43 percent of all 2012 sales were of distressed properties.

Banks are making more of an effort to do short sales instead of taking a home to foreclosure, and new federal guidelines are streamlining the process. That led to a 15 percent drop in sales of bank-owned homes and a 6 percent increase in short sales. This has helped home prices because short sales on average sell for a higher price than do bank-owned homes, because they are usually neither abandoned nor vandalized.

“Although foreclosure-related sales represent a shrinking share of total sales, primarily because of fewer bank-owned purchases, distressed sales are still a disproportionately high portion of the overall housing market,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. “And while distressed properties — whether bank-owned, pre-foreclosure or short sales not in foreclosure — are still selling at a significant discount compared to non-distressed properties, average distressed property prices are increasing in many markets thanks to strong demand and limited inventory.”

Limited inventory continues to be the key in today’s housing market, driving prices higher than most analysts expected. This is surprising, as distress in the market has not simply vanished. There are currently 1.7 homes in the foreclosure process and 1.5 million more seriously delinquent loans (90 days without a payment), according to a new report from Lender Processing Services. Banks are being more aggressive with loan modifications and principal forgiveness, but many of these homes will inevitably end up going back to the banks.

“Inventories continue to be low because non-distressed sellers are largely absent from the market, apparently waiting for prices to increase even more before they decide to sell,” noted Blomquist. “I think we are seeing signs of the shadow [foreclosure] supply hitting, but more on a market-by-market basis and often in the form of short sales as opposed to REO [bank-owned] sales — although REO sales are starting to show signs of life in judicial foreclosure markets with bigger backlogs.”

Strong investor demand for these properties is pushing prices higher, even creating bubbles in some of the formerly hardest hit markets, like Phoenix and Las Vegas. If prices get too high, however, and investors can’t reap the returns they need, then supplies could grow. So far that has not happened, but home prices are rising far faster than anyone predicted.

 

Home #Buyers Are Back, but Where Are the Houses? #housing #realestate

The first official day of Spring may still be 20 days away, but the Spring housing market is already underway. Buyer traffic is rising along with home prices, but one traditional Spring phenomenon is sorely absent: rising supply. The raw number of homes for sale is now at its lowest level in over 13 years, according to the National Association of Realtors, and the numbers continue to fall.

“Some listings are vanishing from a strategic decision of waiting for an even a higher price later. Some are due to few newly built homes available to trade-up to, hence some current existing home owners are unwilling to list. Some could be related to fear of being unable to buy after selling,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Supplies are down across the nation, not just in the former crash markets, like Phoenix and Las Vegas, where investors decimated inventories of distressed homes in bulk purchases. Listings are down 31 percent in Seattle from a year ago, down 32 percent in Denver, down 20 percent in Houston, down 37 percent in Boston, according to local Realtor associations.

“At the moment it’s a seller’s market again,” said David Fogg, a real estate agent in Burbank, CA. “Very low inventory, very low interest rates, almost no bank inventory of homes, it’s crazy out there. Every good property I’ve listed this year has brought 10-50 offers and sales prices 10-20 percent over comps. Cash is King.”

Nearly one third of all existing home sales in January were paid for in cash, and not just by investors, who are making up a shrinking share of the market. Fierce competition is forcing buyers to use every advantage, given that so many are going after so little.

In California’s San Fernando Valley there are usually over 9,000 homes for sale this time of year, according to real estate agent Billy Wynn. Today there are just over 1,400.

“Realtors are getting so many offers they are taking the homes off the market and not accepting additional offers before any offer is even accepted,” said Wynn. “This is real estate bubble 2.0 on steroids.”

It is a puzzling situation, given all the warnings of a tsunami of so-called “shadow inventory” that was supposed to be flooding the market right now. As it stands, fewer distressed properties are coming to the market.

“The ticking time bomb of shadow supply has been diffused by a combination of foreclosure processing delays in judicial states, legislation slowing down the foreclosure process in non-judicial states, foreclosure prevention programs and initiatives encouraging short sales,” said Daren Blomquist of RealtyTrac. “Notably, in 2012, was the National Mortgage Settlement, which both encouraged foreclosure prevention and short sales as an alternative to foreclosure, and the loosening of short sale guidelines by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in November.”

As a result, short sales, where the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage, are rising as a share of total distressed sales, while bank-owned home sales are falling. Investors are now competing for such little supply that they are ironically pricing themselves out of the market.

“We are hearing also, that new home buyers are not really looking at the foreclosure market—the houses are either not in good neighborhoods or the house is in bad condition and needs a lot of updates,” noted Paul Miller, an analyst at FBR. “So home buyers are either going to new-builds or being very picky with the type and shape of the house. We are hearing from plenty of mortgage brokers that they are working with many couples, and they just can’t find the perfect house.”

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5/1 jumbo ARM 2.92% 2.83%
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It is the same story in Houston, Texas, where there were 25,600 listings in January of last year and just 19,000 today. Real estate agents there doubt they will see a surge in inventory this Spring, as Houston is experiencing an employment boom. The Texas Workforce Commission reported more than 85,000 new jobs were created there in 2012. Housing starts are expected to rise by about 17 percent, but that only translates to about 28,000 new homes, according to the Houston Association of Realtors, and current homeowners are just not stepping up.

“Many of my clients are unsure about the economy and the future costs they may face that are associated with The Affordable Care Act. Many say they are nervous about the future and are just sitting back waiting for economic conditions to level out,” explained Danny Frank, Chairman of the Houston Association of Realtors. “Some sellers may be reluctant to put their homes on the market because it typically requires them, in turn, to purchase a home. They may not be financially prepared to make that commitment at this time. Another factor is that there simply isn’t a vast number of homes currently on the market in Houston because of the buying surge we experienced throughout 2012 and now into the new year.”

It may also be a case of, ‘Be careful what you wish for.’ Homeowners were crushed by falling home prices, losing trillions of dollars collectively in home equity. Now that prices are rising, and rising faster than most expected, sellers likely see no reason to rush.

“We are not seeing a flood of new listings, as I would have predicted in a rising market,” said Steve Storti of Philadelphia-based Prudential Fox & Roach. “Sellers are wary and perhaps a little shell-shocked by having listed previously and not being successful. They also may be waiting for prices to rise.”

—By CNBC’s Diana Olick; Follow her on Twitter @Diana_Olick or on Facebook atfacebook.com/DianaOlickCNBC

Will the #housing market revival last?

Sale pendingFor the moment, the good news in the housing market comes with fundamental shifts in supply, demand and mortgage interest rates. (Justin Sullivan/ Getty Images photo / March 1, 2013)
Ilyce Glink & Samuel TamkinReal Estate Matters, Tribune Media Services4:30 a.m. CST, March 1, 2013
The housing market news sounds good this week. Sales of previously owned homes crawled up another 0.4 percent in January, which means that if this level of housing activity keeps up all year, sales will hit nearly 5 million,.That’s not the only good news. Existing home sale prices rose again, for the 11th month in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,600 in January, up 12.3 percent from January 2012. (The last time it jumped that much was from July 2005 to May 2006.)

It’s the best year for the housing market since 2007, before the economy fell off the cliff into the worst recession in 80 years. And for the moment, the good news has to do with a couple of fundamental shifts in supply, demand and mortgage interest rates.

Let’s start with interest rates. When the Federal Reserve Bank moved to lower the federal funds rate (which is the rate many long-term interest rates are tied to), there was a lot of howling about how near-zero interest rates would ultimately cause hyperinflation, or an interest rate environment where we would see 30-year mortgage interest rates climb to perhaps double-digits.

That hasn’t happened, not by a long shot. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve continues to spend of $85 billion per month buying mortgage-backed and other securities, long-term interest rates are actually lower this year than last year.

All the chatter about mortgage rates at historic low levels has sparked another round of refinancing. It has also piqued the interest of buyers who are starting to wonder whether they will miss the opportunity to buy homes that are still priced 20 to 30 percent below the high values set in 2006 — and to finance the purchase at the lowest interest rates in history.

Homes are the most affordable they’ve been in decades, say the Realtors, but that could change soon if more homeowners don’t decide to jump off the fence and become sellers. The number of homes on the market is the lowest it has been since 1999, and that is one of the main reasons home prices are rising, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

“Buyer traffic is continuing to pick up, while seller traffic is holding steady,” Yun explained. “In fact, buyer traffic is 40 percent above a year ago, so there is plenty of demand but insufficient inventory to improve sales more strongly. We’ve transitioned into a seller’s market in much of the country.

“We expect a seasonal rise of inventory this spring, but it may be insufficient to avoid more frequent incidences of multiple bidding and faster-than-normal price growth.”

Frenzied bidding wars may sound good to sellers who have been waiting for prices to rise to a place where they’re not underwater and can sell and move on with their lives. But it isn’t the balanced market so many in the real estate industry have been hoping for.

In fact, a number of factors could derail the housing market revival.

Let’s start with the economy. The economy contracted slightly (by 0.1 percent) in the fourth quarter of 2012, surprising most economists. If government spending continues to decline, it may well spark another recession, though perhaps not as bad as the last.

Even if the country doesn’t fall into a technical recession, extremely slow growth and continued high levels of unemployment mean more homeowners will fall behind on their house payments and into foreclosure or short sale. That will, in turn, drive down home prices again.

Real estate investors have played a key role in turning around the housing market, sopping up homes at the low end. But once the low-hanging fruit (super-cheap homes) is absorbed, real estate investors will either turn into sellers or put up “for rent” signs on their property. With less competition, home sellers won’t get bidding wars and may have to accept lower prices.

Finally, there are a number of reasons why the Federal Reserve will start to raise interest rates, including a rise in inflation. Once that happens, many economists expect the housing market to hit the brakes, as home buyers get used to the idea that their mortgage will carry a 5 or 6 percent interest rate. While that used to seem cheap, it seems downright unreasonable when today’s 30-year fixed rate mortgages are at 3.5 percent.

Higher interest rates mean home buyers will have to spend less to get the same payment. And that will translate into lower offer for sellers.

While it looks good now, that could change. Nevertheless, if you’re selling or refinancing, you’re in a better place now than you were last year.

 

Americans, by a margin of more than 3 to 1, expect the housing market to improve over the next 12 months, part of a broader brightening in their outlook for the economy, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.

 

Fifty percent of poll respondents say the market will continue to get better in 2013 compared with only 16 percent who say they expect it to decline. An additional 31 percent say the market will stay about the same.

i_HUBqi9VQ20Prices are very steadily, slowly, starting to creep back up,” says Eric Matheny, 31, an attorney from Fort Lauderdale,Florida, who purchased a new home five months ago. “The housing market is a major part of the economy, so it says something about the strength of the economy.”

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index rose 5.5 percent in the 12 months to November, the biggest year-over-year gain since August 2006. In January, homebuilders began work on 613,000 single-family homes, the most since July 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday.

As the housing market, the epicenter of the 2008 financial crisis, continues healing, Americans say they expect its improvement to spread through the economy, according to the poll of 1,003 adults conducted Feb. 15-18.

By a margin of 43 percent to 26 percent, respondents say prospects for job growth will rise over the next 12 months, with 30 percent seeing little change; 37 percent anticipate a stronger economy compared with 25 percent who disagree and 37 percent who say it will be about the same.

Deficit Concern

Susan Kosko, 43, a risk-management assistant in ruralPennsylvania, says she feels “a tiny bit” better about the economy thanks to rising home prices in her area and lowinterest rates.

“The deficit is a big concern,” she adds via e-mail.

On several other measures of economic well-being that Bloomberg has tracked over time, the share of poll respondents saying they expect improvement rose from December.

Asked about overall financial security, 32 percent say they expect their situation to get better compared with 14 percent who see tougher times ahead and 48 percent seeing little change.

There’s also an increase in the share of respondents saying the market value of their homes will rise, with 27 percent expecting higher prices compared with 16 percent who anticipate falling values and 34 percent saying they’ll be about the same. In December, Americans were evenly split, with 20 percent predicting higher prices and 20 percent lower prices.

Getting Closer

By a margin of 49 percent to 37 percent, Americans say they feel they’re moving closer to their career and financial goals.

“We’re every year getting closer and closer,” says Matheny. “I’ve got a good work ethic and I put my heart and soul into my job.”

Still, more than three years after the end of the 2007-09 recession, concerns remain. Asked about having enough disposable income to make large household purchases, 29 percent say they expect more difficulty in the coming year compared with 19 percent who plan to loosen their belts.

Thirty-one percent say money for vacations or entertainment will be tighter while 21 percent say the situation will improve. While 28 percent say they expect their household-income situation will be better, 13 percent say it will be worse and 54 percent see no change.

“We’re advancing, but very, very slowly,” says John Grannan, 62, a retired police officer in Fort WayneIndiana, who now teaches criminal justice at a local university.

The economy will grow 1.8 percent this year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Failing Grade

With the stock market close to regaining its pre-crisis peak, respondents expect betterinvestment performance by a margin of 23 percent to 18 percent, with 34 percent seeing little change.

Bob Magera, 63, a part-time pharmaceutical salesman in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, says his 401(k) retirement accounts lost about 50 percent of their value during the financial crisis.

“I’m not where I’d like to be, but I’m OK,” he said.

The outlook isn’t without clouds. President Barack Obama continues to get a failing grade from a plurality of respondents on the question of “making people like me feel more economically secure.” By 48 percent to 45 percent, respondents disapprove of the president’s performance on that issue.

Political Dysfunction

Outright majorities say they expect the national debt and health-care costs to continue worsening. By a 56 percent to 16 percent tally, poll respondents say the nation’s $16 trillion debtwill get worse over the next 12 months while 55 percent say health-care costs will get worse.

Washington’s chronic showdowns over government spending also have left Americans worried about the impact of political dysfunction on retirement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. And by 46 percent to 10 percent, those surveyed expect their federal tax bills to rise in the coming year.

Sizable shares of poll respondents express concern that Social Security and Medicare may not be available when they retire. On Social Security, 43 percent say it probably or definitely won’t exist when they need it, while 54 percent say the program will definitely or probably be there.

Thirty-nine percent of Americans are skeptical that Medicare will be around when they need it, while 57 percent say the health-insurance program for the elderly will definitely or probably be there.

Global Standing

“Unless we get this deficit under control and unless we get spending under control, I don’t think they’ll be around in five or six years,” says Grannan. “Sooner or later, those people we elected better get along and do something before this country falls apart.”

The poll also finds concern over the prospects for the U.S.’s global standing. Since the financial crisis erupted in the fourth quarter of 2008, the Chinese economy has grown at an average annual rate of 8.9 percent compared with 0.6 percent for the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

In the poll, 35 percent say the country’s standing in the world will get worse over the next 12 months while 26 percent say it will improve. An additional 37 percent expect it to remain unchanged.

The Bloomberg National Poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based pollster. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: David J. Lynch in Washington at dlynch27@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Cesca Antonelli at fantonelli@bloomberg.net